Comment by ThatGeoGuy

Comment by ThatGeoGuy

> That's also an outlier, but less than 30k isn't which makes this post somewhat misleading (at best).

I don't disagree that this _isn't_ misleading in a way but it's also important to consider that most EVs are subject to what you said right after:

> Ford's cars are probably too expensive because they ignored the EV market for a decade and it takes time to scale up production and reduce costs.

Notably that Tesla still isn't at a scale of production where walking off the lot with a < $30k vehicle is possible! There usually isn't a lot to walk off of, but its rare that the base model will be available at all!

Most of the cars they are producing are not the base package, and likely will never be. The thing about supply chains here is that the "base model" is a much smaller percentage of actual manufacturing. Most of the time if a manufacturer were to produce 1M units a year, less than 30% will be the very base model. I'm not sure there are clear numbers published anywhere, but you can bet that while the "base model" might seem affordable you're unlikely to find it due to the same supply chain constraints — Tesla would much rather up-sell you to some package above the base model and availability is restricted as-is, so which customers do you think they'll prioritize? Tesla isn't even producing millions of units yet (I think last year was just over 600k?), and this is just a drop in the bucket in the number of cars purchased each year.

> I'd guess this is because Ford can't profitably make an affordable sedan (they can't do so without losing a lot of money) so they need to make a more expensive vehicle with better margins, Tesla did this too of course - they just had a decade head start while the legacy manufacturers did nothing.

They don't "need" to make larger vehicles with better margins, they just prefer to have better margins. A lot of this is a downstream effect of CAFE exemptions on "light trucks," which applies to both SUVs and modern pick-up trucks. I guess my disagreement here isn't that they "can't" make sedans unless you're defining "can't" in terms of "what the shareholders said." We can absolutely regulate these things and it would probably be beneficial to do so.

As for why Tesla isn't making massive trucks? EV physics (weight of batteries vs. amount of energy to move said weight) somewhat preclude this, but counterpoint there is that Tesla is making a truck and wants to be on top of that market. Sedans are in a weird space with EVs since the added weight kind of puts you in a range<->weight arms race. While most people probably don't need as much range as they think they do, you end up picking between the atrocious Hummer EV or a Model 3 (which is still very large for most of the trips you'd take with a sedan!!!).

Replies ThatGeoGuy · 2023-08-01
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