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Ask HN: Feedback on Idea to Track Predictions About a Controversial Topic

Article news.ycombinator.com

Ask HN: Feedback on Idea to Track Predictions About a Controversial Topic

At the risk of getting no traction on this or, worse, nothing but "this doesn't belong on HN" I was just reading the comments for this post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42150443 and the top comment at the time I'm submitting this Ask HN is/was: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42150928 to which I started writing a way-too-long reply that I've decided to turn into an Ask HN instead (dang, please kill this is it's too off topic or because you consider it solely political).

The text of the (sarcastic) comment that triggered this Ask HN:

>I thoroughyl expect the Deparment of Government Efficiency to recommend U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) be shut down to save previous taxpayer dollars.

I've spent a lot of time trying to figure out whether it's a worthwhile effort, individually and potentially in a more structured get-the-word-out-more-broadly fashion, to start tracking all of these types of predictions and then following up in the future once we actually start seeing the outcomes.

To use the comment above as an example of how this would work. Prediction: Trump will greatly benefit Tesla/Elon because of Elon's support during the campaign. Then, if something comes to pass to substantiate this prediction you'd have Result: DOGE (short for Dept. of Gov Efficiency if other readers of this comment haven't been paying attention to US stuff lately) is no longer making FARS information available or FARS is discontinued (note I've never personally heard of FARS).

Another example from a conversation I had this morning (there are countless examples, of course)... Prediction: Trump will repeal the ACA and though he will claim that people with pre-existing conditions will be protected that protection will be in name only as insurance premiums for those with high-cost pre-existing conditions will have lifetime caps on care or otherwise premiums so high that those in need of care won't be able to afford the insurance in the first place (note this is what the world was like, from my limited understanding, before the ACA in the US). Then when action is taken on the ACA you'd share the result.

At first I thought of this as something I'd just track in a Google sheet with prediction/outcome/links columns and then I thought it could be a bit more modern and maybe something like a daily Instagram or TikTok video with two parts. The first part would be something like "Today's Top 10 Predictions About the US Government Under Trump" and then you track those and when a confirmation or denial of the prediction presents itself the second part of the daily video would be "Predictions Confirmed or Debunked."

I realize I'm not saying something unique here. There are certainly things like this that exist (please point me to sites/videos/creators who do this type of thing without a partisan slant if you know of any (please don't point me to Polymarket because money being involved doesn't feel like facts are the important part, but maybe I'm wrong about that?)).

Last thing in this long-ass post: I'm not being partisan here. If you think I am please reread what I've wrote. There's a lot of potential smoke, actual smoke and actual fire at all times with all governments/politicians/groups/etc., but I do think the US is at an inflection point given the language coming from the president-elect and his surrogates. The question is whether all the joy (if you're a Trump supporter) or doom and gloom (if you're not) will be merited. The only way to know is, I think, to be honest about what actually transpires.

Discussion 4 comments · 2 points · harmmonica · 2024-11-15
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